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The Bear Necessities: A Look at the Drivers, Dynamics, and Applications of the Pro-Russia Influence Ecosystem

Written by: James Sadowski, Alden Wahlstrom Introduction Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the pro-Russia influence ecosystem has evolved from a tool of war back into a global strategic asset. Since the mobilization of this ecosystem to support frontline objectives, we have witnessed the expedited development of new influence assets linked to multiple, expansive, covert information operations (IO) campaigns and a revitalization of pro-Russia hacktivism at an unprecedented scale. While this threat activity initially adapted to encompass Ukraine-related priorities, it is gradually pivoting back to established Russian influence objectives for which the ecosystem was originally honed. This shift is significant because it likely signals increased focus outside of Ukraine, warning that pro-Russia influence activity targeting the European Union (EU), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and other top targeting priorities may intensify.  Ultimately, the war in Ukraine has provided a critical feedback loop for Russia to refine its influence activity, lessons that we anticipate will be applied as the ecosystem continues to reorient toward global strategic objectives while maintaining focus on Ukraine. Further, recent pro-Russia IO indicates the continued expansion of already diverse tactics, and the increasing use of generative AI tooling for planning, research, and content creation marks a forward trend in pro-Russia IO. Meanwhile, new and different actors have adopted IO tactics to meet an increasingly diverse set of challenges, signaling growing Russian reliance on influence tactics. Together, these trends likely demonstrate the Kremlin's perception of these tactics as cost effective and successful. The interconnected nature of the ecosystem's disparate components makes it resilient to limited scope disruptions, which defenders must consider to effectively mitigate pro-Russia influence threats.  The Ecosystem at a Glance: Objectives, Targeting, and Tactics Russia's modern approach to information operations is built on the conceptual foundation of Soviet-era "active measures" adapted for the digital age. Alongside disruptive cyberattacks dating back to the early 2000s, the Kremlin has increasingly harnessed internet-based platforms for espionage and information operations. Russia's approach has evolved from rudimentary, singular operations into a complex, self-sustaining environment intentionally curated by the Russian Government that blends overt, covert, and independent elements to advance Kremlin interests both at home and abroad. Core Influence Objectives  GTIG’s observations suggest the primary strategic motivations driving the pro-Russia influence ecosystem fall into five categories, each aiming to achieve military and/or political objectives through psychological manipulation of the target audience (Figure 1). Collectively, these objectives informally depict a global influence strategy: through the furthest reach of its influence, the Kremlin seeks to diminish Western primacy and advance Russia's global position; within its surrounding region, it strives to retain and return Moscow's dominance; and at home, it works to ensure the stability of the political regime. Figure 1: Core objectives of the pro-Russia influence ecosystem Targeting  Pro-Russia influence operations are pivoting from the near singular focus on Ukraine that dominated the ecosystem since 2022. We expect influence operations advancing Russia's war-specific interests to continue. However, as Russia seeks to reemerge from international isolation, we have increasingly observed a concurrent focus on pre-war pro-Russia influence objectives.  The current and historical targeting scope of each ecosystem component exposes both the Kremlin's global ambitions and the realistic limitations of its power

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